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Author Topic:   Is there such a thing as chance?
1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 18 of 175 (175916)
01-11-2005 3:26 PM
Reply to: Message 1 by riVeRraT
01-10-2005 1:27 PM


The butterfly effect
This is again determinism verses non determinism.
On a macroscopic level if enough data can be collected, or if the system can be modeled, or if the intital conditions mapped,,,then yes reality can be partially determined. Chance is alot like probability IMO, probabilities do not affect outcomes, but do provide a confidence interval. Inital conditions can not be duplicated exactley down the the very atom. So IMO science is left with guesses. Very good guesses mind you but thats about all. On a quantum level (microscopically) there seems to be a measure of true randomness ie...as others mentioned radioactive decay. So does chance exist? Yes ...probabilities exist too IMO, But what does that matter? What is going to happen is going to happen. Does free will exist? That again depends on what your personal definition of free will . Some say if you decide to wear black instead of blue you have excercised a choice. But ardent determinist will point out that the choice is simply a cascade on the infinate order of cause and effect that eventually 'caused' your choice. The butterfly effect on the extreme magnitude...A butterfly in Japan flaps its wings which cause a ripple of air current to move some water which propagates into a wave which moves a twig to detonate a water mine, which sends shrapnel out into the land which disturbs a bird that flaps unto your window, the bird is black and subconciously when you awake the next morning you choose to wear black. PS...it is all moot because first off initial conditions can never be exact. And secondly at the present human understanding of physical reality is still incomplete.IMO

"One is punished most for ones virtues" Fredrick Neitzche

This message is a reply to:
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Replies to this message:
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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 22 of 175 (176009)
01-11-2005 9:12 PM
Reply to: Message 20 by riVeRraT
01-11-2005 4:55 PM


Re: The butterfly effect
RiverRat, I am trying to tell you that in my opinion the universe is both deterministic and chance. But the day may someday come that science discovers the theory of everything, then there will be nothing that can not determined. Stephan Hawking, a modern physics guru admitted himself that he is sort of glad there is still room for discovery. And in saying that still room for God and your beliefs.
Peace be with you.

"One is punished most for ones virtues" Fredrick Neitzche

This message is a reply to:
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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 25 of 175 (176057)
01-11-2005 11:40 PM
Reply to: Message 21 by nator
01-11-2005 5:27 PM


Re: Chances
Humans as every other organism are part of the system that entails randomness. So when you shoot that eight ball in the corner pocket the ball may go in 10 times out of 10, but it will not travel the same path
ever. since the initial conditions in theory can never be repeated.
I kinda liked your Arabian as opposed to your ship.

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 64 of 175 (177889)
01-17-2005 3:43 PM
Reply to: Message 60 by RAZD
01-16-2005 8:15 PM


Re: chance and assumption
RAZD writes:
This also assumes a special status for humans, and there is nothing in the known universe to indicate that human life is in any way special.
Mr. Rogers told me I was special.

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1.61803
Member (Idle past 1534 days)
Posts: 2928
From: Lone Star State USA
Joined: 02-19-2004


Message 66 of 175 (177898)
01-17-2005 4:08 PM
Reply to: Message 65 by PecosGeorge
01-17-2005 3:56 PM


Re: Chances
PecosGeorge writes:
I do, however, have it much better than you. For I also see rewarding beauty in all of science, regardless.
Hi Pecos. How can you say you have it much better? You are making an assumption about anothers personal life of whom you know nothing about. Because someone does not share in your beliefs does not diminish that person, nor does it diminish your beliefs. Peace.

"One is punished most for ones virtues" Fredrick Neitzche

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