Universe Race

Chiroptera writes

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There was a study once where it was determined that incompetent people tend to not understand that they are incompetent. They are so incompetent that they don't even have the skill base to judge their own competency.

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Link to NYTimes article

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There are many incompetent people in the world. Dr. David A. Dunning is haunted by the fear he might be one of them.

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Dr. Dunning, a professor of psychology at Cornell, worries about this because, according to his research, most incompetent people do not know that they are incompetent.

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On the contrary. People who do things badly, Dr. Dunning has found in studies conducted with a graduate student, Justin Kruger, are usually supremely confident of their abilities -- more confident, in fact, than people who do things well.

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"I began to think that there were probably lots of things that I was bad at and I didn't know it," Dr. Dunning said.

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One reason that the ignorant also tend to be the blissfully self-assured, the researchers believe, is that the skills required for competence often are the same skills necessary to recognize competence.

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The incompetent, therefore, suffer doubly, they suggested in a paper appearing in the December issue of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

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"Not only do they reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices, but their incompetence robs them of the ability to realize it," wrote Dr. Kruger, now an assistant professor at the University of Illinois, and Dr. Dunning.

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This deficiency in "self-monitoring skills," the researchers said, helps explain the tendency of the humor-impaired to persist in telling jokes that are not funny, of day traders to repeatedly jump into the market -- and repeatedly lose out -- and of the politically clueless to continue holding forth at dinner parties on the fine points of campaign strategy.

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Some college students, Dr. Dunning said, evince a similar blindness: after doing badly on a test, they spend hours in his office, explaining why the answers he suggests for the test questions are wrong.

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In a series of studies, Dr. Kruger and Dr. Dunning tested their theory of incompetence. They found that subjects who scored in the lowest quartile on tests of logic, English grammar and humor were also the most likely to "grossly overestimate" how well they had performed.

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In all three tests, subjects' ratings of their ability were positively linked to their actual scores. But the lowest-ranked participants showed much greater distortions in their self-estimates. Asked to evaluate their performance on the test of logical reasoning, for example, subjects who scored only in the 12th percentile guessed that they had scored in the 62nd percentile, and deemed their overall skill at logical reasoning to be at the 68th percentile.

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Similarly, subjects who scored at the 10th percentile on the grammar test ranked themselves at the 67th percentile in the ability to "identify grammatically correct standard English," and estimated their test scores to be at the 61st percentile.

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On the humor test, in which participants were asked to rate jokes according to their funniness (subjects' ratings were matched against those of an "expert" panel of professional comedians), low-scoring subjects were also more apt to have an inflated perception of their skill. But because humor is idiosyncratically defined, the researchers said, the results were less conclusive.

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Unlike their unskilled counterparts, the most able subjects in the study, Dr. Kruger and Dr. Dunning found, were likely to underestimate their own competence. The researchers attributed this to the fact that, in the absence of information about how others were doing, highly competent subjects assumed that others were performing as well as they were -- a phenomenon psychologists term the "false consensus effect."

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When high scoring subjects were asked to "grade" the grammar tests of their peers, however, they quickly revised their evaluations of their own performance. In contrast, the self-assessments of those who scored badly themselves were unaffected by the experience of grading others; some subjects even further inflated their estimates of their own abilities.

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"Incompetent individuals were less able to recognize competence in others," the researchers concluded.

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In a final experiment, Dr. Dunning and Dr. Kruger set out to discover if training would help modify the exaggerated self-perceptions of incapable subjects. In fact, a short training session in logical reasoning did improve the ability of low-scoring subjects to assess their performance realistically, they found.

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The findings, the psychologists said, support Thomas Jefferson's assertion that "he who knows best knows how little he knows."

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And the research meshes neatly with other work indicating that overconfidence is a common; studies have found, for example, that the vast majority of people rate themselves as "above average" on a wide array of abilities -- though such an abundance of talent would be impossible in statistical terms. And this overestimation, studies indicate, is more likely for tasks that are difficult than for those that are easy.

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Such studies are not without critics. Dr. David C. Funder, a psychology professor at the University of California at Riverside, for example, said he suspected that most lay people had only a vague idea of the meaning of "average" in statistical terms.

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"I'm not sure the average person thinks of 'average' or 'percentile' in quite that literal a sense," Dr. Funder said, "so 'above average' might mean to them 'pretty good,' or 'O.K.,' or 'doing all right.' And if, in fact, people mean something subjective when they use the word, then it's really hard to evaluate whether they're right or wrong using the statistical criterion."

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But Dr. Dunning said his current research and past studies indicated that there were many reasons why people would tend to overestimate their competency, and not be aware of it.

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In some cases, Dr. Dunning pointed out, an awareness of one's own inability is inevitable: "In a golf game, when your ball is heading into the woods, you know you're incompetent," he said.

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But in other situations, feedback is absent, or at least more ambiguous; even a humorless joke, for example, is likely to be met with polite laughter. And faced with incompetence, social norms prevent most people from blurting out "You stink!" -- truthful though this assessment may be.

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All of which inspired in Dr. Dunning and his co-author, in presenting their research to the public, a certain degree of nervousness.

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"This article may contain faulty logic, methodological errors or poor communication," they cautioned in their journal report. "Let us assure our readers that to the extent this article is imperfect, it is not a sin we have committed knowingly."

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Now, the question is can ICANT actually understand what this article said or will he simply dismiss this as just another long and boring article on something he doesn't really understand or care for?

Percy wrote

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Dark matter wasn't proposed to explain the large scale structure of the universe, but to explain why on a much, much smaller scale that spinning galaxies don't fly apart.

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I would like to add something to this. Yes, while this is true, YECs have offered another explanation that, to lay people, would resolve this issue. All they have to claim is that the galaxies are very young and that is why they haven't flown apart yet.I think the more important thing to point out about the necessity of dark matter is that the galaxies are behaving more like spinning solid objects than our planetary model. In other words, the angular speeds of the stars toward the center of the galaxy are very close to the angular speeds of the stars toward the outside. If a galaxy is mostly composed of the visible objects, we would expect it to behave more or less like a planetary system, with the stars toward the edge having much less angular speeds than they do.We know that from what we can see there just isn't enough mass within a galaxy for such behaviors of the stars to occur. The only possible explanation, aside from goddidit, is that much of the matter in a galaxy is not visible to us.Anyhow, YECs have a much less enjoyable time attributing this galactic behavior to a young universe.Edited by teen4christ, : No reason given.Edited by teen4christ, : Fixed some speling gramar erors. Ben havin to many midterms.

ICANT wrote

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I understand the article very well thank you.

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With all due respect, I don't think you do.