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Author Topic:   Peanut Gallery
Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 1351 of 1725 (624987)
07-21-2011 1:36 AM
Reply to: Message 1337 by jar
07-20-2011 3:03 PM


Inductive Reasoning (Again)
jar writes:
It would be fine if you qualified it as saying "Every claim of a god I have looked at could be explained as a products of the human mind rather than real entities."
But you didn't feel the need to insist that I qualify my statement about gravitational effects to say that "Every gravitational effect thus far investigated can be explained in terms of space-time curvature rather than immaterial and undetectable gravity gnomes linking masses together". Why did you feel the need to object to the statement regarding gods but not the one regarding gravity gnomes?
jar writes:
But as it stands it is no more valid than an assertion that "All swans are white."
It seems we have another theist who accepts inductive reasoning as valid in science until it conflicts with his own personal beliefs. How unsurprising. Can you tell me if you see a fundamental difference between this:
Straggler elsewhere writes:
The only known source of crop circles is human construction. Scientific inductive reasoning thus leads to the tentative and falsifiable theory that ALL crop circles are constructed by humans. This theory can be falsified by presenting concrete evidence of ANY other source of crop circles which is not human in origin. This theory predicts that where the source of any specific crop circle becomes known, human construction will be found to be the cause. This prediction has been borne out in all known cases. This theory is not weakened by assertions that unevidenced causes of crop circles (such as cereal goblins or alien beings) might exist anymore than evolutionary theory is weakened by baseless alternatives such as Last Thursdayism for example.
and this:
Straggler writes:
The only known source of supernatural concepts is the human imagination. Scientific inductive reasoning thus leads to the tentative theory that ALL supernatural concepts are derived from human imagination. This theory can be falsified by presenting another source of such concepts. Either the existence of such an entity or a supernatural concept derived from a non-human source. This theory predicts that where the source of any specific supernatural concept becomes known that source will turn out to be human imagination. This theory is not weakened by assertions that unevidenced sources might exist (anymore than evolutionary theory is weakened by Last Thursdayism)

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1337 by jar, posted 07-20-2011 3:03 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1357 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 8:40 AM Straggler has replied

Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 1352 of 1725 (624990)
07-21-2011 1:52 AM
Reply to: Message 1343 by jar
07-20-2011 5:11 PM


Evidence
jar writes:
There is NO evidence that all gods are simply products of the human mind rather than real entities.
Well this is simply untrue. Firstly it is an evidenced fact that humans can and do invent gods. For example here is a god invented by me:
Wagwah is the god of PC blue screens and crashes. Where a PC blue screens or crashes and there is no technical reason forthcoming Wagwah is responsible. By correctly aligning your mouse and other peripherals on your desk you can appease Wagwah and avoid such incidents taking place.
There you go. I have invented a god. Conclusive evidence that humans can and do invent gods.
Secondly - All of these gods were also invented by humans:
Solar deities
Wind gods
Fertility deities
Lunar deities
Thunder gods
Creator gods
Fire gods
And this is just a tiny fraction of the gods invented by humans.
Thirdly - We have various human psychological traits. These have most eloquently been summarised by Mod in this thread:
Mod writes:
The proclivity for humans to embellish, confabulate, imagine, speculate. The proclivity for confirmation bias in superstitious behaviour and beliefs. The hyper active agency detection of human minds, the need for 'false positives' in survival. The tendency to pay more mental attention to entities that are minimally counter-intuitive. The sheer number of conceptions of supernatural beings which have been shown false by science. The fact that no evidence supporting the existence of any supernatural entity has been forthcoming in an age where we figured out time dilation and quantum physics.
The very existence of 'wishful thinking' that you point out and the very 'wishful' nature of many supernatural concepts. The hierarchical mind set of primates. Our strong desire for narrative, even or especially ones that circumvent our common notions in interesting ways.
The connection between epilepsy and religious ideas, the common content of delusions and so on and so forth.
There are plenty of psychological effects that we know of that could explain how humans can inadvertently create and believe in the existence of unseen beings. The alternative explanation: That there are real supernatural beings that some humans have experienced, has no supporting evidence and in some flavours is as unfalsifiable as Russel's Teapot, the IPU, and carries exactly as much merit.
So there you have it - Evidence that humans can and do invent gods.
Now where is the comparable evidence to suggest that the actual existence of gods is even a possibility worthy of rational consideration?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1343 by jar, posted 07-20-2011 5:11 PM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1355 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 8:30 AM Straggler has not replied

Chuck77
Inactive Member


Message 1353 of 1725 (625011)
07-21-2011 6:45 AM


What is proof? What is a theory?
I thought i'd bring this to the peanut gallery (for now). It's something Pressie said on the "Why are there no human apes alive today?" thread in the "Human Origins and Evolution Forum".
Here's the whole comment Message 896
I wanted to focus on this from his message:
Pressie writes:
Theories never prove anything.
We look at all the evidence available and theories explain that evidence. For this reason nothing is "proved" in science. Proof is for maths and alcohol.
What Pressie said seems contadictory. Maybe it's not, that's why im bringing it up. If, for a second and for arguments sake let me try to put Pressies comment to work in my own words. Im not saying it's factual in anyway or that It even makes sense, just trying to see if this fits with his statement:
"I found a bunch of fossils in my backyard all balled up with eachother. It appears they fossilized quickly due to rapid burial and the right conditions. This is the evidence. My hypothesis is, that there was a local flood at one point in time that covered my backyard with water killing these animals causing the rapid burial. I've dug out every backyard within a mile and the fossils tapper off dramatically the farther out I go, strengthening my hypothesis that it was a local flood. The Theory says at one time it rained a lot here and we live in a fish bowl type neighborhood and the water could not escape like it could outside the fishbowl causing hazardous circumstances confined to this area only. Other animals outside the bowl survived fine as it was just any other day. For the fishbowl, it proved fatal. For now we call it the "theory of the local fishbowl flood".
Is that a good theory? With good evidence? Now, what's the "proof" that his happened? According to Pressie there is none. It's just the best explanation I can come up with after analyzing everything and even talking about it amongst all my friends. We all agree it was a local flood that killed these animals. Although we can't prove it. We have no proof, but it's the best we got and think it pretty much resembles what happened here.
Is this a good theory? a workable one?
When Scientists say Evolution is a fact, it's the theory that is up for debate what exaclty do they mean?
That Natural Selection happens, mutations, speciation, adaptation, finch beaks etc etc, is all fact but the theory would be what? That all this evidence shows that humans evolved as well as all speices from a common ancestor according the way we percieve the evidence but have no "proof" this is actually true?
Im not at all being difficult or even calling Pressie out. Who said this isn't the point, im just wondering it it's true and a good description of Scientific theorys. It seems so loose to me. It means that however the theory goes, you can fit any evidence you want in to it as long as it conforms to the theory?
So really, the theory is the umbrella that the evidence needs to fall under. Not the other way around? So the theory has to be very diverse I imagine. So wide open that it would be hard to refute it with such a broad horizon.
Is this at all accurate? Or am I being a little to critical of the whole process which im admittedtly somewhat ignorant of.
If there is a better thread for this can someone post the link. Thanks.
Edited by Chuck77, : No reason given.

Replies to this message:
 Message 1354 by Panda, posted 07-21-2011 7:20 AM Chuck77 has not replied
 Message 1356 by Modulous, posted 07-21-2011 8:39 AM Chuck77 has not replied

Panda
Member (Idle past 3743 days)
Posts: 2688
From: UK
Joined: 10-04-2010


Message 1354 of 1725 (625015)
07-21-2011 7:20 AM
Reply to: Message 1353 by Chuck77
07-21-2011 6:45 AM


Re: What is proof? What is a theory?
I'll italicise your parts...
I found a bunch of fossils in my backyard all balled up with eachother.
This is an observation (or fact).
I've dug out every backyard within a mile and the fossils tapper off dramatically the farther out I go
More observations.
It appears they fossilized quickly due to rapid burial and the right conditions.
This is an assumption - not a fact.
(The clue is in your use of the word 'appears'.)
My hypothesis is, that there was a local flood at one point in time that covered my backyard with water killing these animals causing the rapid burial.
This would be fine, if your assumption about the fossilisation is correct.
(At this point, I would expect someone to point out that flooding is very common, but fossils are not.)
Is this a good theory? a workable one?
It is a theory. But it will be rapidly proved wrong.
When Scientists say Evolution is a fact, it's the theory that is up for debate what exaclty do they mean?
This is a common problem when speaking in layman terms.
This should explain it:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolution_as_theory_and_fact

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1353 by Chuck77, posted 07-21-2011 6:45 AM Chuck77 has not replied

jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 1355 of 1725 (625038)
07-21-2011 8:30 AM
Reply to: Message 1352 by Straggler
07-21-2011 1:52 AM


Re: Evidence
I suggest that you actually learn to read what I write.
I never denied that there is evidence that humans create gods. In fact I have pointed that out to you before. But that is also irrelevant to what you claimed.
You claimed that all gods are simply the product of the human mind.
If you do not like my position, then fine. I present my position, you present your position.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1352 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 1:52 AM Straggler has not replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 1356 of 1725 (625041)
07-21-2011 8:39 AM
Reply to: Message 1353 by Chuck77
07-21-2011 6:45 AM


Re: What is proof? What is a theory?
Im not at all being difficult or even calling Pressie out. Who said this isn't the point, im just wondering it it's true and a good description of Scientific theorys. It seems so loose to me. It means that however the theory goes, you can fit any evidence you want in to it as long as it conforms to the theory?
So really, the theory is the umbrella that the evidence needs to fall under. Not the other way around? So the theory has to be very diverse I imagine. So wide open that it would be hard to refute it with such a broad horizon.
The riskier the theory, the better. A theory which says that all terrestrial life is related through common ancestry or that all life evolves as a result of mutations, horizontal gene transfer and natural selection effects are risky in that they can be easily falsified by showing a single life that is not related or heritable change not as a result of mutation etc.
All x are y is a theory can be falsified by showing an x that is not y.
All known xs are y is a statement of fact (that may or may not be true).
To go from the fact to the theory, one needs to make a leap of induction (where the known cases are suitably representative of all cases).
The line between facts and theories can be a little blurry at times. One test is to see if it makes predictions. If it makes predictions about cases that are presently unconfirmed then it is probably a theory. The predictions will tend to be along the lines of 'any xs that are identified will turn out to be y'.
That Natural Selection happens, mutations, speciation, adaptation, finch beaks etc etc, is all fact but the theory would be what?
That all biological change can be explained in terms of mutations speciation, adaptation natural selection etc etc, even those cases we haven't yet had the opportunity to study. This is a theory since it can easily be shown incorrect by future information - assuming it is incorrect.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1353 by Chuck77, posted 07-21-2011 6:45 AM Chuck77 has not replied

jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


(1)
Message 1357 of 1725 (625043)
07-21-2011 8:40 AM
Reply to: Message 1351 by Straggler
07-21-2011 1:36 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
Neither of those examples are the quote I have been commenting on and so are irrelevant.
I also do not object to inductive reasoning or ever implied such a thing.
I have said that if you really meant to say that all gods you have examined have been simply the product of human imagination and so YOUR believe is that that can be extended to assert that all gods are the product of human imagination, then I can even agree that is a reasonable, rational nd logical position.
Of course that says absolutely nothing about whether it is a correct position.
As I pointed out to you in the past, I do not believe there can ever be subjective evidence for GOD or that it is likely that while we are still alive we can even find any OBJECTIVE evidence for GOD.
Look again at your quotes.
quote:
I mean conclusions like the conclusion that the Earth is 4.5 billion years old rather than being omphamsitically created last Thursday.
I mean conclusions like the conclusion that gravitational effects are caused by space-time curvature rather than immaterial and undetectable gravity gnomes linking masses together.
I mean the conclusion that evolution actually took place rather than the notion that fossils and genetic evidence were simply planted by Satan to make us believe ungodly things about the creation of species.
I mean the conclusion that gods are products of the human mind rather than real entities.
We can find both subjective and objective evidence related to the age of the earth, gravitaional effects, evolution.
The other things you mention, omphalism, gnomes, Satan, and god are simply outside any scientific testing.
The first three examples you listed are things that can be tested.
The second group of things are all impossible to test by any means I am aware of.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1351 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 1:36 AM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1358 by Modulous, posted 07-21-2011 8:48 AM jar has replied
 Message 1360 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 9:00 AM jar has replied

Modulous
Member
Posts: 7801
From: Manchester, UK
Joined: 05-01-2005


Message 1358 of 1725 (625045)
07-21-2011 8:48 AM
Reply to: Message 1357 by jar
07-21-2011 8:40 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
I have said that if you really meant to say that all gods you have examined have been simply the product of human imagination and so YOUR believe is that that can be extended to assert that all gods are the product of human imagination, then I can even agree that is a reasonable, rational nd logical position.
But nobody is asserting that all gods are the product of human imagination. It is being theorised that all gods are the product of human imagination. That's why this line of reasoning continues to fail as a counterargument to BGs theory.
Of course that says absolutely nothing about whether it is a correct position.
Exactly. It makes one wonder that people spend so much time trying to discredit an unfalsified theory. Nobody is asserting that the theory is an incontrevertible truth. Indeed, it is often stressed that it might false.
How any individual chooses to deal with a theory that makes predictions, is not falsified, and has some supporting evidence is entirely up to them. It seems that one response is to critically misunderstand the basic fundamentals of the theory and rail against it.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1357 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 8:40 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1359 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 8:59 AM Modulous has replied
 Message 1373 by bluegenes, posted 07-21-2011 10:13 AM Modulous has seen this message but not replied

jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 1359 of 1725 (625046)
07-21-2011 8:59 AM
Reply to: Message 1358 by Modulous
07-21-2011 8:48 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
Mod writes:
jar writes:
Of course that says absolutely nothing about whether it is a correct position.
Exactly. It makes one wonder that people spend so much time trying to discredit an unfalsified theory. Nobody is asserting that the theory is an incontrevertible truth. Indeed, it is often stressed that it might false.
How any individual chooses to deal with a theory that makes predictions, is not falsified, and has some supporting evidence is entirely up to them. It seems that one response is to critically misunderstand the basic fundamentals of the theory and rail against it.
I too have no idea why anyone wastes time trying to either prove GOD exists or to refute that GOD exists. It is a futile effort and IMHO really silly.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1358 by Modulous, posted 07-21-2011 8:48 AM Modulous has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1362 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 9:02 AM jar has replied
 Message 1366 by Modulous, posted 07-21-2011 9:14 AM jar has replied

Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 1360 of 1725 (625047)
07-21-2011 9:00 AM
Reply to: Message 1357 by jar
07-21-2011 8:40 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
So for each of the examples you have quoted which explanation or conclusion is most likely to be correct?
The highly evidenced one or the the evidentially baseless yet conceivable alternative.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1357 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 8:40 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1361 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 9:01 AM Straggler has replied

jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 1361 of 1725 (625049)
07-21-2011 9:01 AM
Reply to: Message 1360 by Straggler
07-21-2011 9:00 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
We have enough evidence to reach a conclusion on the first three.
There is no way that I can see to reach any conclusion about GOD. That is and will remain simply a matter of belief.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1360 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 9:00 AM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1363 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 9:03 AM jar has replied

Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 1362 of 1725 (625050)
07-21-2011 9:02 AM
Reply to: Message 1359 by jar
07-21-2011 8:59 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
Are highly evidenced conclusions more likely to be correct than unevidenced claims? Or not?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1359 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 8:59 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1365 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 9:06 AM Straggler has replied

Straggler
Member (Idle past 95 days)
Posts: 10333
From: London England
Joined: 09-30-2006


Message 1363 of 1725 (625051)
07-21-2011 9:03 AM
Reply to: Message 1361 by jar
07-21-2011 9:01 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
So there is no evidence to suggest that humans invent gods for reasons that have nothing to do with the actual existence of gods?
Really?
Edited by Straggler, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1361 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 9:01 AM jar has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1364 by jar, posted 07-21-2011 9:05 AM Straggler has not replied

jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 1364 of 1725 (625054)
07-21-2011 9:05 AM
Reply to: Message 1363 by Straggler
07-21-2011 9:03 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
You really can't read can you?

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1363 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 9:03 AM Straggler has not replied

jar
Member (Idle past 424 days)
Posts: 34026
From: Texas!!
Joined: 04-20-2004


Message 1365 of 1725 (625055)
07-21-2011 9:06 AM
Reply to: Message 1362 by Straggler
07-21-2011 9:02 AM


Re: Inductive Reasoning (Again)
A product of human imagination is not a GOD.

Anyone so limited that they can only spell a word one way is severely handicapped!

This message is a reply to:
 Message 1362 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 9:02 AM Straggler has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 1370 by Straggler, posted 07-21-2011 10:01 AM jar has replied

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