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Author Topic:   A Modern Day Miracle Man - Establishes the Supernatural Realm
Perdition
Member (Idle past 1314 days)
Posts: 1593
From: Wisconsin
Joined: 05-15-2003


Message 271 of 297 (527161)
09-30-2009 12:04 PM
Reply to: Message 266 by Modulous
09-30-2009 10:40 AM


Re: common tricks or genuine miracles?
Did you ever see Derren Brown's work?

A couple of the shows he's done have made it across the pond (or he may have come and done some here, not sure which) but it's freaky what he can do. I would love to know what he does,with that kind of POWER I COULD TAKE OV...um, I mean, yeah, it's very impressive {cough}

Seriously, though, I'm in total awe of him...even Kris Angel can do some weird, freaky things, and he's a douche.

Edited by Perdition, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 266 by Modulous, posted 09-30-2009 10:40 AM Modulous has acknowledged this reply

Replies to this message:
 Message 278 by Larni, posted 10-01-2009 5:44 AM Perdition has not yet responded

    
Izanagi
Member (Idle past 3293 days)
Posts: 263
Joined: 09-15-2009


Message 272 of 297 (527196)
09-30-2009 2:03 PM
Reply to: Message 264 by Cedre
09-30-2009 10:30 AM


Re: YOu might want to respond to arguments in the post
Cedre, you are confusing two different statistics. On any given day, there is a 1 in 3 chance of an aviation accident. On any given day, a specific individual has a 1 in 25 million chance of being in an aviation accident. Why are these different statistics?

The first deals with how often an aviation accident occurs. Based on given data, we can expect an aviation accident to occur every 3 days. This does not translate to whether or not a specific individual will be involved in the accident. This statistic has little to do with the odds of an individual being involved in an accident, just that an accident will occur every 3 days.

The second deals with the individual and the chances for that individual being involved in an accident. The actual statistic is actually a bit higher on being involved in an aviation accident with at least one fatality, 1 in 9 million, according to this site, but the odds refer to an individual's chances.

This chart from the National Transportation Safety Board, I think, best represents the scale of accidents in a given year for US aviation alone. As you can see, the total number of accidents is never less than 1500 from 1989-2008. During this same period, the number of fatal accidents in any given year is never less than 200. That means we can expect a fatal aviation accident every 1.8 days and any kind of accident every quarter of a day anywhere in the world. These statistics include multiple types of airplanes, except, as I can see, military.

You look at an individual's odds at being involved in a fatal accident. However, looking at odds isn't enough, you need to look at the aggregate numbers. There were 29.6 million flights for the year 2007 and that's just for airlines and doesn't include private aircraft, business aircraft, training aircraft, etc. For the US alone, in 2007, there were 288 fatal accidents and 1650 total accidents. That means only 0.00000097 of flights resulted in a fatal accident. But the number is still 288 fatal accidents for 365 days, which still means 1 fatal accident every 1.27 days or, using total number of accidents, 4.5 accidents per day.

Understand? You are right in saying that an aviation accident is rare. But rare or not, just by the sheer number of flights that occur and the sheer number of flight hours around the world, accidents are bound to happen. It is similar to 10 million people each buying 1 lottery ticket in order to win a lottery in which a person has a 1 in 5 million chance of winning. Two people are probably going to win simply because there are enough tickets to cover the odds, twice. Even though the chances of an aviation accident is rare, and a fatal accident is rarer still, the sheer number of flights and flight hours ensures that it will occur and occur many times.

So TB Joshua predicting an aviation accident for three given days, in which he apparently includes nonfatal accidents, is unimpressive. I could make a similar prediction and be right since it would happen eventually simply because the numbers are in my favor (that is, I can expect 4 aviation accidents per day).

Edited by Izanagi, : No reason given.

Edited by Izanagi, : No reason given.

Edited by Izanagi, : No reason given.

Edited by Izanagi, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by Cedre, posted 09-30-2009 10:30 AM Cedre has not yet responded

  
Izanagi
Member (Idle past 3293 days)
Posts: 263
Joined: 09-15-2009


Message 273 of 297 (527202)
09-30-2009 2:26 PM
Reply to: Message 264 by Cedre
09-30-2009 10:30 AM


Re: YOu might want to respond to arguments in the post
To reiterate my previous point, the sheer number of flights and flight hours ensures that accidents will occur and occur frequently throughout the year, despite being a rare occurrence.

TB Joshua's predictions on aviation accidents would be more impressive if he mentioned a specific person, given and last name, and the month, day, and year that person would be involved in an aviation accident.

And as the Great Prophet Perdition mentioned, the prediction should be made and sealed before an audience of skeptics, scientists, and a TV crew, postmarked and mailed to neutral third party, and opened after the date the accident is supposed to occur in front skeptics, scientists, and a TV crew. That would go a long way to convincing me that he is the genuine article. Otherwise, while I am willing to except some things on faith, I am unwilling to be a patsy.

Edited by Izanagi, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 264 by Cedre, posted 09-30-2009 10:30 AM Cedre has not yet responded

  
SammyJean
Member (Idle past 2150 days)
Posts: 87
From: Fremont, CA, USA
Joined: 03-28-2009


Message 274 of 297 (527319)
09-30-2009 6:44 PM
Reply to: Message 208 by Cedre
09-29-2009 10:39 AM


Yeah... right? Moving on...
Cedre writes:

In my earlier post I said that I wasn't going to waste another minute on the issue of TB Joshua's prophecies and I meant what I said, you can make of his prophecies whatever you want, it's all up to you. Let's move over to the next issue, his miracles.


So you keep saying that you want to move on to his miracles yet you have not addressed my post Message 214. One more time, please address my post!


"Few are those who see with their own eyes and feel with their own hearts." -Albert Einstein

"I would rather have a mind opened by wonder than one closed by belief."
~ Gerry Spence


This message is a reply to:
 Message 208 by Cedre, posted 09-29-2009 10:39 AM Cedre has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 275 by Theodoric, posted 09-30-2009 7:01 PM SammyJean has not yet responded

    
Theodoric
Member
Posts: 5954
From: Northwest, WI, USA
Joined: 08-15-2005
Member Rating: 2.6


Message 275 of 297 (527322)
09-30-2009 7:01 PM
Reply to: Message 274 by SammyJean
09-30-2009 6:44 PM


Re: Yeah... right? Moving on...
I think this is the fifth time he has been asked to address that post. I guess I wouldn't hold my breath.

Obviously he is not willing to consider anything that does not fit into he belief structure. My father has a great line for people like this.

quote:
Don't confuse me with the facts, my mind is made up.


Facts don't lie or have an agenda. Facts are just facts
This message is a reply to:
 Message 274 by SammyJean, posted 09-30-2009 6:44 PM SammyJean has not yet responded

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14749
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 276 of 297 (527344)
10-01-2009 2:46 AM
Reply to: Message 269 by tuffers
09-30-2009 11:16 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Thanks for those figures, tuffers. They are worse than I suspected, even after noting that planecrashinfo.com was badly incomplete. (It would be nice to see a link, though - I like to check things out for myself).

When we consider that TB Joshua's supporters count:

Accidents anywhere in the world.

Helicopter crashes

Crashes with no fatalities

It seems likely that there is at least one qualifying crash on most days.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 269 by tuffers, posted 09-30-2009 11:16 AM tuffers has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 277 by tuffers, posted 10-01-2009 4:20 AM PaulK has responded

    
tuffers
Member (Idle past 3352 days)
Posts: 92
From: Norwich, UK
Joined: 07-20-2009


Message 277 of 297 (527349)
10-01-2009 4:20 AM
Reply to: Message 276 by PaulK
10-01-2009 2:46 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Hi PaulK

Here you are (part of the official FAA website):

http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/2009/ARG0901.pdf


This message is a reply to:
 Message 276 by PaulK, posted 10-01-2009 2:46 AM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 281 by PaulK, posted 10-01-2009 7:28 AM tuffers has not yet responded

    
Larni
Member
Posts: 3975
From: Liverpool
Joined: 09-16-2005


Message 278 of 297 (527362)
10-01-2009 5:44 AM
Reply to: Message 271 by Perdition
09-30-2009 12:04 PM


Re: common tricks or genuine miracles?
I would love to know what he does,

Sigh.

I would have thought this was obvious.

He's actually magic.

even Kris Angel can do some weird, freaky things, and he's a douche.

South Park Fan?

Edited by Larni, : 'actually'

Edited by Larni, : South Park reference


This message is a reply to:
 Message 271 by Perdition, posted 09-30-2009 12:04 PM Perdition has not yet responded

    
Cedre
Member
Posts: 350
From: Russia
Joined: 01-30-2009


Message 279 of 297 (527364)
10-01-2009 5:57 AM
Reply to: Message 214 by SammyJean
09-29-2009 1:03 PM


Re: Back to the healing
Sincere apologies SammyJean for my slowness in adressing your post, you should however know that it was not by design that I kept from addressing it, it's because the other posters had me distracted all the time, and consequently I could not find the time to effectively deal with it for a while but I have responded to it below.

quote:
Myself and others have already tried to get you to address questions about this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h7cGK9OodVY Catholic Scientist posted the video in Message 38
At the very end of the video it updates the status of the main people interviewed in the video:

[quot]quote:
John Rindel went for an AIDS test on April 12, He is still HIV positive.
Nine year-old Muller Starke went for medical tests on April 18, His heart condition remains unchanged.

Wium Basson died over the weekend.


I don't know what exactly it is you want me to address about the video since you haven't clarified it, but I'm reckoning that it's got to do with these mentioned individuals not being healed or dying from conditions they were prayed for. Okay, if thats it, there are two responses I can provide, the first one pertains to faith; the bible says without faith it is impossible to please God, and faith healing is care provided through prayer and faith in God as its name suggests, it takes a believe in God's ability to heal all sicknesses to be healed, without faith you can forget about receiving your healing, or anything from God for that matter, by faith are we saved,and by it do we enjoy the benefits of the Christian life such as healing. Jas

quote:
1:6-7 Let him make his request in faith, doubting nothing; for he who has doubt in his heart is like the waves of the sea, which are troubled by the driving of the wind. (7) Let it not seem to such a man that he will get anything from the Lord;
There were times even Jesus could not heal because of unbelief! Note that after healing people Jesus would often tell them that it was their faith that healed them, and TB Joshua usually tells people to confess to this effect; forgive my unbelief. Healing can only come from the belief that God can. It is God's will to heal people, but their Faith/disbelief sometimes get in the way. Healing is not always instant. Sometimes it takes a period of time. Sometimes it never comes!I guess for these aforesaid individuals it never came perhaps due to their disbelieve or perhaps God said to them My grace is sufficient for you like he said to Paul when he prayed to be healed for his own medical condition, a thorn in his side.

The other response is that of sin, or selfish desire, perhaps people only seek healing just to return to their old sinful ways. Tb Joshua addressed this issue at his Singapore crusade and said that it could interfere with your healing, he explicitly stated that in order to maintain your healing you must be in right standing with God, and the bible clearly states this in Romans

quote:
Rom 8:12-13 My dear friends, we must not live to satisfy our desires. (13) If you do, you will die. But you will live, if by the help of God's Spirit you say "No" to your desires.

So living to please God does play a role in your healing. The individuals in the video may have stood in the way of their own healing.

On the other hand there are many reported cases of people being healed and these are accompanied by video evidence; some people are healed instantly, instant births are broadcast live and recorded, people vomiting and urinating blood and other body fluids on the command of TB Joshua, paralysis sorted out in just minutes, burns and cancerous sores on the legs arms and other parts vanishing within a few days, sometimes people slap these painful looking sores right after being prayed for. Just view the video clips, its all there, better yet visit the SCOAN personally that is if you distrust the video clips.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 214 by SammyJean, posted 09-29-2009 1:03 PM SammyJean has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 280 by tuffers, posted 10-01-2009 6:43 AM Cedre has not yet responded
 Message 292 by SammyJean, posted 10-02-2009 12:07 AM Cedre has responded

    
tuffers
Member (Idle past 3352 days)
Posts: 92
From: Norwich, UK
Joined: 07-20-2009


Message 280 of 297 (527370)
10-01-2009 6:43 AM
Reply to: Message 279 by Cedre
10-01-2009 5:57 AM


Re: Back to the healing
Cedre

Has you man ever submitted himself to a proper objective test of his healing powers? Or is there some convenient rule that his powers wouldn't work under controlled conditions?

(Although I'm unclear as to what he is meant to be either proving or achieving by "instant births ... people vomiting and urinating blood and other body fluids".)


This message is a reply to:
 Message 279 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 5:57 AM Cedre has not yet responded

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14749
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 281 of 297 (527374)
10-01-2009 7:28 AM
Reply to: Message 277 by tuffers
10-01-2009 4:20 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Thanks for that. There is a lot more on the site.

Looking at the statistics for January 2009 it seems that there was a crash of a US-registered aircraft almost every day. Add in the rest of the world and it appears overwhelmingly likely that there will be a crash on any day you choose to mention.

The January 2009 "prophecy" must be regarded as completely debunked.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 277 by tuffers, posted 10-01-2009 4:20 AM tuffers has not yet responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 282 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 8:42 AM PaulK has responded

    
Cedre
Member
Posts: 350
From: Russia
Joined: 01-30-2009


Message 282 of 297 (527398)
10-01-2009 8:42 AM
Reply to: Message 281 by PaulK
10-01-2009 7:28 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Looking at the statistics for January 2009 it seems that there was a crash of a US-registered aircraft almost every day. Add in the rest of the world and it appears overwhelmingly likely that there will be a crash on any day you choose to mention. The January 2009 "prophecy" must be regarded as completely debunked.

Only someone who refuses to think properly will reach the conclusion you have reached? Let me ask you a few questions that I expect you to answer with honesty.

1) Why were plane crashes more likely to happen everyday in the January month as you say?
2) Was there an unseen force that was causing all of these planes to crash almost everyday as you have said?
2) Or were these crashes the result of pilot error, or did plane manufactures just construct crappy planes for the January month?
4) Why didn't the crashes carry on into the February month, and if the February month had fewer planes that crashed what might explain this?

Just because a plane crash happened on a previous day there is no guarantee it will happen the next day;

5) If you argue there is a guarantee what is this guarantee founded on?

What's my point? my point is plane crashes are random events, they are not prearranged, they are also rare according to statistics, GA crashes may not be as rare as airliner accidents, but by just looking at the numbers we cannot fully tell the risk of something. At times a few weeks may pass before the next crash or just a few days, some months have more crashes than other months, this is what we would expect to notice about a totally random event. Therefore you cannot write off the prophecy of TB Joshua with this argument. Especially since his prophecy was right on the nose, accidents did happen on all the dates he gave in his prophecy.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 281 by PaulK, posted 10-01-2009 7:28 AM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 283 by PaulK, posted 10-01-2009 9:20 AM Cedre has responded

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14749
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 283 of 297 (527414)
10-01-2009 9:20 AM
Reply to: Message 282 by Cedre
10-01-2009 8:42 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
quote:

Only someone who refuses to think properly will reach the conclusion you have reached? Let me ask you a few questions that I expect you to answer with honesty.

I will certainly answer honestly. You will doubtless respond with more unfounded personal attacks.

quote:

1) Why were plane crashes more likely to happen everyday in the January month as you say?

I did not say any such thing. And you must remeber that I was talking about the WHOLE of January 2009 - not just the second half, which TB Joshua's "prediction" covered.

quote:

2) Was there an unseen force that was causing all of these planes to crash almost everyday as you have said?

There is no evidence to suggest that the situation is in anyway abnormal and therefore no need to invoke any "unseen force".

quote:

2) Or are these crashes the result of pilot error, or did plane manufactures just construct crappy planes for the January month?

I expect that many are pilot error. But what difference does that make ?

quote:

4) Why didn't the crashes carry on into the February month, and if the February month had fewer planes that crashed what might explain this?

I never said that they did not carry on into February. In fact the figures show a crash of a US-registered plane every day in February 2009 except for the 13th.

quote:

Just because a plane crash happened on a previous day there is no guarantee it will happen the next day;

5) If you argue there is a guarantee what is this guarantee founded on?


I never said that there was an absolute guarantee. All I am saying is that the figures show that TB Joshua's "prediction" was utterly unimpressive.

quote:

What's my point? my point is plane crashes are random events, they are not prearranged

That is what I've been saying all along.

quote:

they are also rare according to statistics

No, they aren't - at least not in any relevant sense. That has been shown time and again in this thread.

quote:

GA crashes may not be as rare as airliner accidents, but by just looking at the numbers we cannot fully tell the risk of something.

You can by looking at the RIGHT numbers. But that is what you call "refusing to think properly".

quote:

At times a few weeks may pass before the next crash or just a few days, some months have more crashes than other months, this is what we would expect to notice about a totally random event.

That is not what the figures show - nor is it what I would expect.

quote:

Therefore you cannot write off the prophecy of TB Joshua with this argument.

So your idea of "thinking properly" is rejecting the real data in favour of your imagined data. I don't think that many people would agree.

quote:

Especially since his prophecy was right on the nose, accidents did happen on all the dates he gave in his prophecy.

Exactly as anybody knowing the figures would expect. Predicting a highly probable outcome is hardly impressive, nor evidence of the supernatural.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 282 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 8:42 AM Cedre has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 284 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:28 AM PaulK has responded

    
Cedre
Member
Posts: 350
From: Russia
Joined: 01-30-2009


Message 284 of 297 (527417)
10-01-2009 9:28 AM
Reply to: Message 283 by PaulK
10-01-2009 9:20 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Give me a link to this other crashes that happened before the dates given in the prophecy apart from the 15th? And since you believe its all a matter a guessing I challenge you to make a few guesses of your own for this month.

But since you have admitted that plane crashes are completely random events, that are not caused by any unseen force and are not guaranteed to happen on a particular date, and largely result from pilot error a point you denied before, since you admitted all of this things TB Joshua's prophecy is not as unimpressive as you claim.

Because if they are totally random, there is no guarantee that a plane crash will happen on a day you predicted, especially if you predicted multiple dates for the same month. For a totally random event that won't be so likely.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.

Edited by Cedre, : No reason given.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 283 by PaulK, posted 10-01-2009 9:20 AM PaulK has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 285 by PaulK, posted 10-01-2009 9:38 AM Cedre has responded

    
PaulK
Member
Posts: 14749
Joined: 01-10-2003
Member Rating: 1.7


Message 285 of 297 (527420)
10-01-2009 9:38 AM
Reply to: Message 284 by Cedre
10-01-2009 9:28 AM


Re: SOME PROPER STATISTICS
Here is the NTSB list of crashes for January

Remember that they only cover American registered private planes, so there will be many crashes not included.

I predict that there will be air accidents on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th of this month (October 2009). People who have real confidence in their claims accept valid challenges. Which is why your refusal was so telling.


This message is a reply to:
 Message 284 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:28 AM Cedre has responded

Replies to this message:
 Message 286 by Cedre, posted 10-01-2009 9:51 AM PaulK has responded

    
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