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Author Topic:   If it can be, how can the "Absence of Evidence" be "Evidence of Absence?".
xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2587
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 6.4


Message 241 of 309 (537100)
11-26-2009 11:23 PM
Reply to: Message 232 by kbertsche
11-25-2009 12:56 PM


Re: Formula?
kbertsche notes:
As I tried to explain in Message 223, strictly speaking, "absence of evidence" is never "evidence of absence." "Absence of evidence" is a neutral concept. You can get this by closing your eyes. We often use the term "absence of evidence" incorrectly when what we really mean is that a partial search was performed and nothing was found. This is, strictly speaking, more than just an "absence of evidence;" it is "evidence of absence" over the parameter space which was searched.
I just made a post, #461 in the Faith & Skepticism thread (see Message 461), that gets to this - from probability theory and the concept of The Mean Time Between Failure using probability equations, the parameter space which was searched can be used as Positive Evidence. If we liken all parameter space to a huge deck of cards and the amount searched as how far down the deck we have looked, then the answer of whether there is, as rumoured by some, an Ace of Spades buried in the deck somewhere can be speculated on based on our rough ideas of how big the deck of cards is. In that post I came up with the term Coelacanthic Ace for this.
There may or may not be a Coelacanthic Ace in the deck. We have turned over 83 gazillion cards so far. Have we turned over enough to make the probability of an Ace so small that we can claim it as Empirical Objective Evidence of 6.0 Dawkins?

- xongsmith

This message is a reply to:
 Message 232 by kbertsche, posted 11-25-2009 12:56 PM kbertsche has seen this message but not replied

xongsmith
Member
Posts: 2587
From: massachusetts US
Joined: 01-01-2009
Member Rating: 6.4


Message 304 of 309 (539529)
12-16-2009 2:57 PM
Reply to: Message 279 by Jon
12-15-2009 1:32 PM


After watching RAZD & Straggler piling up argument after argument, Jon astutely observes:
LOL... I wonder if you folk even realize you aren't arguing against one another.
It's about time someone finally pointed this out.
Thanks, Jon.
It's like something from Goedel, Escher & Bach:
Achilles: Everytime I add up the 2nd row, I get X.
Tortoise: What! Everytime I add up the 3rd column I get Y!
Achilles: Now look, my friend - here is how I do it...adding across the elements of the 2nd....you see? It's always X!!
Tortoise: But see, it's you who must be confused!! When I sum up the 3rd column, the only logical answer is Y!!!

- xongsmith, 5.7d

This message is a reply to:
 Message 279 by Jon, posted 12-15-2009 1:32 PM Jon has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 305 by Straggler, posted 12-16-2009 6:35 PM xongsmith has not replied

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