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Author | Topic: Brexit - Should they stay or should they go? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3
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quote: Parliament has the power, but they have to use it. And if they want an extension of the deadline they need EU agreement.
quote: Public pressure for some, international law for others.
quote: Once we depart from EU regulations the EU is going to stop recognising our standards - at least in the relevant areas. Which means companies would need to get EU certification for goods. It’s not just goods either - data protection is a big issue. If we don’t follow GDPR to the EU’s satisfaction, EU companies can’t send their data here.
quote: The point is that Ireland is in the EU, so it’s not just Britain and Ireland, it’s Britain and the whole EU. Ireland is not going to institute border controls with the rest of the EU, and we can’t expect them to.
quote: Probably the government to try to get support for May’s deal. But it is worse than that, it is hard to set the question so that it doesn’t influence the result.
quote: Which would be fine if there was agreement on what is fair. But there isn’t. If the majority want Brexit in some form should we stick with Brexit ? If there is more support for Remain than there is for either of May’s deal or No Deal individually should we abandon Brexit ? Both are very likely true.
quote: Usually it’s a General Election but Parliament has time to come up with an alternative government - if they can agree on one.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
We have May’s Plan B. Run down the clock, threaten No Deal and hope someone else blinks.
She’s playing chicken with the fate of the Nation. Too bad there is no way to get rid of her.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
In reality the Queen is supposed to stay out of politics. In law she has powers, but using them would provoke a crisis.
She doesn’t have a casting vote on anything - she doesn’t even have a vote in a General Election. In principle she could tell Theresa May to pack her bags and get out of Number Ten, but I really don’t think we want a massive fight over the Monarchy on top of all the Brexit mess. And that’s about the most useful thing she could do - even in principle - right now.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
May’s Plan B is she threatens everyone with No Deal to get Plan A through Parliament.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
Probably not. The EU has the Irish backstop as a red line and they aren’t likely to risk it just so that May can push her deal through Parliament. It might work on Parliament, if the efforts to stop it don’t come through. But given the scale of her defeat the first time it’s not something to bank on.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
I think that the most likely scenarios are - at present:
No Deal Parliament takes over and forces a soft Brexit May’s deal And the order of likelihood is far from certain. No Brexit isn’t even ruled out. It also depends on the EU’s tolerance for the squabbling I. Parliament. If the EU won’t grant an extension for Parliament to get its act together (or for a referendum or a General Election or whatever) then that’s pretty much out. Whichever way it goes expect a load of arguing and shouting and rancor in the House.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
It’s all about the Irish Backstop. If May has concrete - and realistic - proposals to avoid it she stands a chance.
But if she is just going to go back to insisting on a fixed time limit or a unilateral right to withdraw - or assuming that the “technology” fairies will magically solve all the problems it is going to be a hard sell.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
The way I see it is that May is only allowing three options.
The EU backs down over the backstop. Parliament passes May’s deal as it is No Deal. And unless Parliament gets its act together the second option is the least bad we can hope for. The BBC has live blogging of Parliament. Whenever anyone asks May to rule out No Deal she tells them to vote for a deal - i.e. whatever deal she feels like offering.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
I don’t see the EU changing course without a substantial offer from May, and I don’t see May offering anything more than “change the backstop or No Deal”.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
The EU position is that it stays as negotiated. It’s part of the deal and it’s the best option they found in the negotiations.
The hardline Brexiteers want a strict time limit or the right to pull out unilaterally - without an alternative having been found. Parliament narrowly voted for demanding an alternative now, because May decided to make a concession to the hardliners. Nobody has said anything about what that alternative might be. The least unreasonable option (apart from cancelling Brexit) is to go for a Customs Union now (no need for a backstop then). That might get through Parliament but the Tories would implode (when the hardliners explode). Sadly the next best thing is May’s deal, with the backstop. Which amounts to a temporary Customs Union until an alternative is found (I think that the hardliners realise that that is really, really difficult - although they say otherwise - and that is why they object to the backstop) Sticking a border in the Irish Sea solves a lot of the problems but the DUP would explode and a lot of the Tories wouldn’t like it either.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
quote: The final version is that the backstop applies to the whole of the U.K. - except for some regulatory alignment. Probably to try to keep it acceptable to the DUP - but it didn’t work.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
It’s only an option if enough MPs will back it. The pro-Brexit types, including May, are dead set against it. We’d need an extension now for it to make sense and May is against that, too.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
I think that the real problem is that there is no acceptable solution to the Irish border.
If there was a way of keeping it open that would be acceptable to Parliament the EU would go for it. The point of the backstop is to give Britain time to come up with a solution and show it can work.
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PaulK Member Posts: 17827 Joined: Member Rating: 2.3 |
quote: Each side gets to say if it is acceptable to them. You can object that one of them might be acting in bad faith, but it’s hard to find anything better. Right now the ERG are only willing to accept their idea that technology and trusted trader schemes. And it is really questionable whether it will. Or how long it would take to get it working if it could work. The backstop gives them the chance to make a better case - hopefully including some trials of some sort. Just assuming that it is going to work, on the other hand leaves everyone with a problem. But that is all the ERG will accept. The EU would be happy with a full Customs Union. They would probably accept limiting the backstop to Northern Ireland, with a border with the Irish Sea. But they aren’t going to accept a closed border in Ireland.
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