Coronavirus and Pandemics

--Percy

This morning the growth in number of infections looked like they were slowing, and tonight the growth still appears to be slowing. It's still too early to be sure, I'd want to see two more days of data, but it's a hopeful sign. For the benefit of others let me say that growth slowing is analogous to accelerating more slowly in a car - your speed continues to increase, but at a slower rate.For comparison we can look at the Italy data since curve-wise we're about 10 days behind them. Their mitigation efforts seem to have turned the curve from exponential to roughly linear beginning about 10 days ago. This daily increase bar graph for the US says we're still exponential: --Percy

More Americans Should Probably Wear Masks for Protection - The New York TimesYa think!If you’re going anywhere there are people, and like especially a grocery store, WEAR A MASK.Most people can’t get masks, so suck up to someone who sews (or marry one) and give them one of the templates off the web. Pay them $100 - it’s your life at stake here.Percy

Here's the latest graph showing US infections rising above 120,000: And here is the latest log graph. A straight line upward means exponentially increasing, downward means exponentially decreasing, and flat neither increasing or decreasing. The steeper the slope up or down the greater the exponential increase or decrease. It seems to contain strong evidence of slowing of the exponential increase over the past ten days: I'm sure White House health advisers have seen graphs like this, debated whether to show them to Trump, and then decided no. He'd either not understand them at all, or he would misunderstand them and misinform the public, or worse, use them to make bad decisions.And here are the actual numbers against my projected numbers. The actual numbers are falling further behind my projections, further evidence of slowing growth (but still growth). If this holds up another day I'll revise my projections: --Percy

A scathing indictment of the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus pandemic: The missing six weeks: how Trump failed the biggest test of his life | Donald Trump | The Guardian--Percy

You're ignoring previous things I've said to you. In Message 5605, a reply to you, I said, "China should be condemned for any actions they took or failed to take that left the world less time to prepare." You did not reply. It would be impossible to repeat everything you've ignored in every message because you ignore so much.So repeating, China should be condemned, not blamed, and then we must move on. The course you and Trump are charting only increases political friction and decreases international cooperation when we need it most.There was sufficient time to address the viral threat. South Korea and the US both saw their first case on the same day, January 20th. One country addressed the problem competently and immediately, the other incompetently while dilly-dallying. Here's their logarithmic graphs:

South Korea: Left; United States: Right

Korea has already managed to nearly flatten their curve, the US isn't even close. Trump is trying to deflect blame from his administration to China. Sure, China left us less time than we would have wanted, but we did have sufficient time were there the political will and competent management.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Typo.

A projection is only an estimate or forecast based on current data, and adjusting projections in light of new data is what is always done. Wouldn't it be misleading to label making a projection based on current data an error? Or do you feel it was an error to not have tried to anticipate when mitigation factors might begin taking effect?The website I've been using for my data is strangely quiescent today for the US (ArcGIS Dashboards Classic). Usually the numbers are updated several times a day, but today they're little changed from about 18 hours ago.--Percy

You miss a lot of all stuff, not just my stuff. Your response was appropriate to your level of self-imposed ignorance. If you're going to choose to ignore a good deal of what people say in response to you then have the integrity to take responsibility for the errors you then make. No I did not. You're having reading comprehension problems again. I responded to your expressed desire to blame China, hold them responsible, and bill them a trillion dollars. I told you that you were merely playing the Trumpian blame and accuse game, which does no good.You further said it originated in either their "wet markets" or bio-warfare labs. One of those is possible, the other conclusively debunked. As described to you more than once, while the first identified cases were in Wohan, the origin of the virus has not been definitively established. It is legitimate to hold China responsible for holding back timely information about the epidemic in Wohan.You may resume the endless defense of your errors during which you will undoubtedly commit more errors, accumulating to the point where no one knows what any of it is all about, at which point you will again declare you made no errors.--Percy

Could you keep the quackery stuff out of the thread unless supported with links to reliable sources? One person has died already.--Percy

There are no state or federal quarantines anywhere in the country. Trump spoke of opening up large and largely unaffected portions of the country by around Easter, despite his advisors' opinion that Easter was way too early and that the entire country would eventually be affected. It was dangerous to the country for Trump to say anything that might encourage people to cease mitigation practices early. As the negative reactions poured in over subsequent days Trump backed away from his Easter proposal.Trump's mismanagement style has been so extremely bizarre that it can be hard to remember how a responsible and competent administration would have handled the past week. Discussions about when to loosen mitigation practices, whether to do anything relevant to possible drug alternatives, and whether to quarantine the New York metropolitan area would have taken place behind closed doors in consultation with governors and officials as appropriate. Once consensus was reached and a decision made then a single announcement would be made that would set clear directions and policy for the appropriate time period.What we instead had was a confusion of changing positions and pronouncements by a president who pays more attention to what social media and polls say about him than what is good for the country.--PercyEdited by Percy, : Improve clarity.

Just a reminder that I'm not a moderator here, but this is a personal request to please behave responsibly and leave the quackery out of the thread. Someone has already died, which you apparently don't care about as long as it wasn't Trump's fault, but I didn't mention Trump, it was you who brought up that connection, but yes, we know it wasn't Trump's fault. Nothing is Trump's fault.--Percy

While the first cases were in Wuhan, China, the source of the novel coronavirus is unknown at this time, see https://www.sciencedaily.com/...ses/2020/03/200317175442.htm. It has an animal origin, possibly bats or pangolins, both of which can have wide ranges that cross national boundaries. Pangolins are often smuggled into China for their meat and scales.Scientists may eventually be able to ferret out where the novel coronavirus mutation evolved, but right now you are incorrect to state that it is a "known fact" that it originated in China. By the way, the first known case had no known connection to wet markets.--Percy

Here's the latest graph showing US infections rising above 140,000: Here's the latest log graph. It clearly indicates a decline in the rate of spread. Given reports of increasingly dire situations in New Orleans, Detroit and Chicago, and given that the news isn't picking up on the decline in exponential growth, the possibility exists that this is an artifact of decreased weekend reporting, but if this holds up it is very good news: Here are the actual numbers against my projected numbers. The actual numbers are falling even further behind my projections, more evidence of slowing growth (but still growth). Because the change in slope seems to still be changing I'll wait another day to update these projections: --Percy

Ive just read 11 to 100,000: What went wrong with coronavirus testing in the U.S. and believe it's possible we're getting an inaccurate count of conronavirus infections in the US.And while the article does not comment on deaths, I think it is possible we're getting an inaccurate count of deaths, too. A significant number of those who die may never get tested for the CV, or they are tested but their test results do not come back in time for the coroner to note CV as the cause of death.--Percy

This information comes from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic. Here's the latest graph showing US infections rising above 160,000: Here's the latest log graph, continuing to indicate that we've entered a more linear rather than exponential period of increase in infections: Linear growth doesn't make sense to me given that only .05% of the country is infected. Saturation effects cannot be a factor at such a low penetration rate, so it can only mean our mitigation efforts, social distancing and so forth, are working.The linear growth is about 20,000 per day right now, increasing by maybe a thousand a day. This growth rate is minuscule compared to the size of the country. If these numbers are true then it means we've succeeded in flattening the curve and that the hospital system will not be overwhelmed.But I suggest viewing this new projection askance because just a week ago epidemiologists projected that infections should be up in the millions very soon, e.g., ShieldSquare Captcha, pretty much in line with my original projection. For now I'll just say I'm happily surprised and that I hope this holds up: --Percy