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Author | Topic: Coronavirus and Pandemics | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 67222 so far:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday:
There are positive hints in these graphs. Deaths have dropped for four straight days, and the number of cases has declined for two straight days, though it remains concerning at above 24,000 per day. Another concerning thing about the number of cases is that the pandemic is gradually moving out into the countryside where tests are not as readily available or done, so the degree of undercounting will likely increase. The key question is how the gradual reopening will affect the contagion's progress. The answer is no mystery. In two to three weeks we will see increases in the number of cases, and within a week or two after that the number of deaths will begin to creep up. The unknown is how masks and social distancing will affect things. A note about the six-foot social distancing guideline. Some will recall that when social distancing first became a thing that we were not wearing masks. Wearing masks makes a difference, but it's unclear how much. Obviously cloth masks greatly reduce the likelihood of large droplets, but only moderately of aerosols whose degree of danger is not established at this time. Do you have to maintain social distancing if you're wearing a cloth mask? Until this issue has been studied I advise employing both. What if you're wearing an N95 mask? Obviously social distancing is less necessary, but how much is unknown. Hopefully the coming weeks will bring clarity on the mask issue. But video I've seen of hair and nail salons and tatoo parlors shows people wearing masks in close proximity to each other. This virus is highly contagious. Whether the mask or the virus wins these confrontations is unknown at this time. Stay tuned. Concerning testing and contact tracing, the nation is still woefully behind where it needs to be for a safe reopening. Because of the number of people not wearing masks or maintaining social distancing, and because of the lack of sufficient testing and contact tracing, I expect there will be a period of several weeks beginning around three weeks from now where I'll be making at least several "I told you so" posts. A note about remdesivir. There are tantalizing preliminary indications that it can reduce the recovery period and provide a modest reduction in morbidity. If we find treatments that cause infections to almost always end in full and successful recoveries then the pandemic is over. This would be fantastically good news, but it isn't something we should count on. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here are my assessments for each of these:
--Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 69378 so far:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday:
Trends seem promising, but it will be three to five weeks before the results of loosening begin to show in these graphs. We won't really know the impact of the May loosening until June. Again, the big question is whether masks and distancing are sufficient. We still have woefully insufficient testing and contact tracing. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
kjsimons writes: Percy, there was an update to the model this afternoon, now they are predicting 134,475 COVID-19 deaths by August 4th. This is the projection from COVID-19. It's interesting to put the 4/25 projection and today's projection on the same page:
For some reason I didn't have the courage to walk out on a limb on 4/25 and declare that projection a fantasy, but that's what I was thinking. That, and that they were modifying their projections frequently without making it clear what data was driving those changes, was why I stopped including it in my update posts. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 71,078 so far:
The recent tick upward must be an artifact of reporting latency. The prior days were probably somewhat higher, and yesterday was probably much lower. Also, one article I read today said that the timeliness of reporting of deaths by the states varies widely, in some cases taking weeks. Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday:
Scored a two liter bottle of 62% hand sanitizer today. Don't hoard, but during May it might be a good idea to gradually stock up on some supplies because it's possible there could be an uptick in June. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
The woman this article is about was the wife of the late Stephen Jay Gould: A N.Y. woman went $600,000 in debt to buy protective equipment for workers and hospitals keep turning her down
--Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 73.243 so far. The large upticks the last two days must obviously be reporting lag artifacts. The death rates the last two days were probably lower and the previous few days likely higher:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. There's an obvious weekly 7-day pattern. Likely tomorrow's number will be in the 26-28K range, and the day after in the 28-30K range:
I read an opinion piece yesterday (Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve) that pointed out that if you remove urban centers from the coronavirus graphs of cases and deaths that the trendline is still strongly upward. Just as predicted in this space, the virus is moving out of the cities and into the countryside where urgent care facilities, emergency rooms and hospitals are much further apart, sometimes hours distant. It is stunning how Republicans are largely blind to the indelible image of incompetence the Trump administration is projecting in the face of this pandemic. We have to concede Trump's incredible effectiveness at convincing his base that he's doing a great job. With the gradual reopening taking place I'm going to continue to remind people that unless a couple factors come to the fore that it is going to get much worse before it gets better. To avoid that these things need to be true, and there's no guarantee that they are:
Also effective at avoiding the relapse would be very widespread testing and intensive contact tracing, but the Trump administration is providing very little in these areas. In images and videos I see many people wearing their masks fairly low on their faces creating significant spaces between the mask and the side of their nose. To be effective masks must be pulled up closer to the eyes where the spaces will be much smaller. Actual N95 masks have a little piece of flexible metal at the top that can be bent to precisely conform around your nose. We'd so given up on finding masks in stores that when we were out yesterday we forgot to even look for them. --Percy Edited by Percy, : Provide link to an article.
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Big_Al35 writes: I never questioned the veracity of the mainstream claims about the coronavirus. Great, but then what was the point of your question? Here it is from Message 617:
Big_Al35 in Message 617 writes: I would be interested to know how many people you personally know who have the virus Percy? --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 75,254 so far. The large upticks the last three days must obviously be reporting lag artifacts. The death rates for those days were probably lower and the previous few days likely higher. Guestimating, I'd say we're averaging around 1900 deaths/day in the US over the past few weeks.
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. Concerning the weekly 7-day pattern, todays figure of 28,400 cases is very close to yesterday's projection of 26-28k. I'm still estimating that tomorrow's number will be in the 28-30K range:
Three. That's the big number from today's grocery shopping. There were only three people not wearing masks, all customers, all over 60. Think back to my March 20 report six weeks ago (Message 96) where I said, "Only three people were wearing masks, and I was one of them. I felt very self-conscious." I did not feel self-conscious today, except maybe a little because I was one of the very few with an N95 mask. It was mostly cloth masks, a few bandanas, a few surgical masks, two N95's. I've been wearing the same N95 mask for six weeks now and it is holding up fine, but of course I only wear it once or twice a week for maybe a few hours at most. The rest of the time I'm either sheltering at home, picking up takeout once a week or so, taking walks, and playing tennis. Weather's been horrible. AbE: Should have mentioned, at the grocery store the meat section was about half empty. --Percy Edited by Percy, : AbE.
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Yesterday Trump said, I feel about vaccines like I feel about tests: This is going to go away without a vaccine. It’s going to go away, and we’re not going to see it again, hopefully, after a period of time.
This is yet another example of Trump lying to the American people. Evidence suggests that approximately 40% of Americans will believe him. He should leave communication of information about the disease to the experts. His comments on other topics, such as the economy, are less idiotic and ignorant. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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xongsmith writes: even if they get a vaccine, it will be obsolete when it hits the public. the mutation rate makes this a lethal moving target. All virus routinely mutate, the coronavirus is no different. Scientists believe that all the mutations detected so far are inconsequential as related to vaccine sensitivity, and of course that could change. There's some info on the web, for example see COVID-19 Will Mutate What That Means for a Vaccine. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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Our experience with the covid-19 virus tells us that most cases are mild, so mild that many people have had it unawares. But many cases are more severe. These percentages are rough and likely lower because we don't have an accurate account of the number infected, but 40% will experience symptoms, 20% will be hospitalized, 10% will be in an ICU, 6% will be on ventilators, and 2% will die.
Here is the story of a woman who has had persistent covid-19 for weeks: ‘How long can a heart last like this?’. Everyone should take every precaution to avoid catching a virus that can cause an experience like this, not just for themselves but for the people they might in turn infect. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9
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No one should have a cavalier or complacent attitude about catching this virus, figuring they'll just catch it, recover, and be done with it. This virus is not benign. It can do dangerous things to the body, as the Post detailed in an article yesterday (Doctors keep discovering new ways the coronavirus attacks the body). "Often it attacks the lungs, but it can also strike anywhere from the brain to the toes." It has a great capacity to cause blood clots in the extremities, which was the mechanism responsible for Broadway star Nick Cordero's loss of a leg just a few weeks ago. No one is safe from this virus.
The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 is the technical designation) has a mainstream presentation of a fever, cough and shortness of breath, but it can present itself in a variety of other ways. This variety derives from its ability to wreak havoc on blood vessels, leading to clots that range in size and can travel all over, including the brain, lungs and kidneys (in fact, the kidneys are a common target as the virus attacks the waste filtering cells). Whenever the clots lodge in a critical organ there could be catastrophic consequences, and which organ will catch a clot cannot be predicted. The variety also derives from the body's own immune response, which can go into overdrive and begin attacking the very body it was intended to protect. Which part of the body will the immune system attack? Unpredictable. You do not want to catch this virus. The most likely outcome is that you'll be fine, but the chances that you won't be are far from negligible. --Percy Edited by Percy, : Fix typo.
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Trump yesterday claimed that the US leads the world in testing, speaking before a banner declaring this untruth:
We've tested more people that any other country, but that's because the US has more people than almost any other country (China and India are the only countries with larger populations, each with about four times more people). The reality is that the US is 40th in per capita testing, the important measure and the only one that matters. This is part of a table from COVID Live - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer. You can find us near the bottom:
We're 41. Yay us. --Percy
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Percy Member Posts: 22503 From: New Hampshire Joined: Member Rating: 4.9 |
Here's today's graph of deaths per day from The Washington Post Coronavirus Page, 81,663 so far. To me this appears to show a clear downward trend:
Here's the bar graph of new cases from ArcGIS Dashboards Classic as of yesterday. I see a clear downward trend in this graph too:
Since the situation nationally regarding testing and contact tracing have not changed since the country was shut down, the gradual reopening that began around the beginning of May should soon begin to reflect itself in these charts, in another week or two for the number of cases, and in another two to five weeks for the number of deaths. There's been a great deal of recent criticism of the projection models. For instance, projections for the next few weeks depend a great deal upon how much people trust that it's safe out there. The projections can vary widely from reality because of the unpredictability of people's behavior. If people fill malls and bars and restaurants then strong upward trends in cases and deaths will resume. But if people don't trust that it's safe out there and approach public gatherings cautiously then the uptick could be small. If people are completely untrustful that it's safe then the trend could continue downward. There are two factors that cause me to believe the upward trend will resume. One is the Trump administration's encouragement of loosening and reopening. The other is many people's desire to return to work for financial reasons. --Percy
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