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Author | Topic: Should we teach both evolution and religion in school? | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Kleinman Member (Idle past 171 days) Posts: 528 From: United States Joined: |
So you think that everyone on the Internet is fish-to-mammals aficionados? You fish-to-mammals aficionados have a habit of making gross over-extrapolations from your very small frozen wastelands. We are still waiting for you to present one empirical example of DNA evolution that contradicts the math I've presented. You have failed at that.
We know, those seeds fell on rocky ground. But the fish-to-mammals seeds, that found fertile soil in your mind. How about that verse "whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap"? Did the fish-to-mammals aficionado teach you that math?
Is that what bananas tell you, "we are distant cousins"? Do you speak bananaese? Or do you have to put what they say into Google Translate?
And it is clear you have never taken a course in introductory probability theory. But bananas talk to you and tell you that they are distant relatives. You have an interesting way of continuing your education.
Don't worry, I'm going to submit my next paper soon. And this discussion has done a lot of good for me, it enabled me to break my writer's block and write the conclusion for that paper. And people on this forum claim there are scientists who post on this forum that understand probability theory. Where are they?
Since I have experience with teaching, I can tell you there are some poor students out there. Most of the time, the reason they are poor students is that they don't do their homework.
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Straggler Member (Idle past 2 days) Posts: 10328 From: London England Joined: |
So - Are you going to tell us the probability of these traits occurring in that population or not? What are you afraid of?
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 171 days) Posts: 528 From: United States Joined: |
I've already done plenty of probability calculations and have gotten them peer-reviewed and published. Why are you afraid of calculating the probability of a malaria resistance mutation occurring? At some time, you fish-to-mammals aficionados need to start learning how to do the mathematics of evolution. Why don't you start right here? Taq has already given you a big hint. For a mutation rate of e-9, it takes 3e9 replications for each of the possible substitution mutations to occur at the given site. How much more of a hint do you need?
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Straggler Member (Idle past 2 days) Posts: 10328 From: London England Joined: |
I need you to tell me the probability of fair skin, blue eyes, lactase persistence and alcohol tolerance all having evolved during the mesolithic (i.e when the total number of humans that had ever lived was about 400 million according to your link).
You do it. It’s your calculation. You were desperate to show how bewilderingly impossible evolution was earlier when talking about chimpanzees and whatnot. Let’s see what your calculations say about the likelihood of relatively recent human traits. Why are you stalling?
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dad Member (Idle past 164 days) Posts: 337 Joined: |
Probability depends on what factors are used to determine what is probable. It isn't really applicable to TOE. They use beliefs to determine what was 'probable'.
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dad Member (Idle past 164 days) Posts: 337 Joined: |
The probability of rapid adapting in the past is not an issue, but a matter of record. We see all the skin changes and etc and know the timeframe it happened in. Science bases what is probable on the way things work today. That is their fatal flaw.
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 171 days) Posts: 528 From: United States Joined: |
Why can't you use probability theory on evolution? After all, the mutation rate is simply the probability that an error on DNA replication will occur at the given site in a single replication. It is probability theory that sinks the TOE, in particular, the multiplication rule.
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ringo Member Posts: 18929 From: frozen wasteland Joined: Member Rating: 4.1
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You've spoken to some of them. You should be able to spot them.
How many times are you going to mention "fish-to-mammals aficionados" in it? "I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 171 days) Posts: 528 From: United States Joined: |
Only one so far, Taq. And it took a lot of discussions to get him to do the math for the number of replications necessary for every possible substitution mutations to occur at a given site. His calculation confirmed my math. And he fully understood the consequences this has for the TOE. That's why he started to talk about recombination. His problem is that I had already published a paper on the mathematics of recombination and shown that it has very little effect on DNA evolution. There have been none on this forum that demonstrate any understanding of the Markov chain models of DNA evolution. Only some moron who claims to understand the model but can't even tell us what the initial conditions for the model is.
I'll try to be more diplomatic then telling them they are "blithering idiots and you are doing the math incorrectly", but no matter how I say this, it is going to be very upsetting to a lot of "fish-to-mammals" aficionados. After all, even if you don't understand the math, do you think that cherry-picking some gene from an entire genome, ignore the rest of the genome that you can get any kind of an accurate idea how closely related the two species are? That idea is so ludicrous that you could look for a gene in a banana that is similar to your gene and by that logic you are related. If the genes are exact matches, your parents are bananas by that logic.
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ringo Member Posts: 18929 From: frozen wasteland Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
We had a guy on here a few years ago who was going to publish that one paper that would bring the whole ToE crashing down. One paper, mind you, against thousands. We're still waiting for that paper. "I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 171 days) Posts: 528 From: United States Joined: |
The mathematics is complete, the paper is written, the only thing remaining is the last case study for the simulation of two drugs simultaneously for the Kishony experiment. That calculation on my computer system (an older I3 Intel chip running at about 1GHz) can only do 1.5 trillion replications/day. It will take about 200 trillion replications to get the one double beneficial mutation. Right now the calculation is at 60 trillion replications and I'm probably going to stop at 100 trillion replications because it is clear where the solution is converging and I don't think it's worth running the calculation for another 2-3 months. Solving Markov chain calculations can take huge amounts of computer time. All the other cases comparing the standard Jukes-Cantor model with the stationary transition matrix with the non-stationary transition matrix (with selection) are done. The non-stationary model accurately simulates the Kishony experiment. In addition, I've been invited by a good statistics journal that publishes papers on Markov chain models to submit a paper. It will probably happen by the end of summer. I assume the peer-review process will take some time because I expect there to be controversy surrounding this paper. What I don't expect is that there will be a problem with the math. I've published too many mathematical papers and when the math is correct and correlates correctly with the empirical evidence, everything seems to harmonize. And this is one of those cases.
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dad Member (Idle past 164 days) Posts: 337 Joined: |
quote:The same reasons that we can't say it is not probable that wolves will eat grass and lions will eat grass one day soon. The basis for what is probable cannot be this present world and nature. For the past this holds true also. quote:Genetics do not appear to be the same as now in the future in the bible. The changes to animals will be fast, lightning fast. The changes to mankind also will be. They will live a thousand years again for example. It is not the mutation rate that will be responsible for this. It sounds more like a new set of laws working on animals and man and the world will be responsible. Nothing random about it. The same holds true of the past. The way genetics worked was simply not the same and not under the current laws. We cannot use the way things now work in this temporary nature as the basis for what was or will be probable.
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ringo Member Posts: 18929 From: frozen wasteland Joined: Member Rating: 4.1 |
Have you ever considered grid computing? I used to be hooked up to the World Community Grid and they had my computer working in its spare time on protein folding. You could hypothetically have thousands of computers working on your problem and returning their results. "I've been to Moose Jaw, now I can die." -- John Wing
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AZPaul3 Member Posts: 5719 From: Phoenix Joined: Member Rating: 4.6 |
And your evidence is what? Fairy tales? The badly kludged oral histories of some ancient goat herders? Your gut feel? Rank ignorance and the stupidity of refusing to learn? Tell us about this "other, different, used-to-be" nature that never was. Factio Republicana delenda est. ![]()
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Kleinman Member (Idle past 171 days) Posts: 528 From: United States Joined: |
You should do a little more research on the subject, canines and felines already do eat grass. Why Do Dogs Eat Grass? Why do cats eat grass? DNA evolution is no different that any other type of stochastic process such as coin tossing, dice rolling, card drawing, etc. That's why when you do the math properly, you can predict the evolutionary process and do DNA identification. Do you doubt the validity of DNA identification because this is done based on the rules of probability theory.
You have to play the hand your are dealt. The only real examples of evolution we have available which can be measured and repeated are experiments such as the Kishony and Lenski experiments.
You can only say with certainty how genetics works right now. Why would you think that genetics worked differently in the past and will work differently in the future?
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