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EvC Forum Side Orders Coffee House Gun Control Again

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Author Topic:   Gun Control Again
Percy
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Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 339 of 5179 (684501)
12-17-2012 5:17 PM
Reply to: Message 331 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 5:01 PM


I'm not going to try to talk you out of anything you want to believe. The problem for you is convincing other people with evidence like that.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 331 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 5:01 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 343 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 5:23 PM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(1)
Message 348 of 5179 (684512)
12-17-2012 5:43 PM
Reply to: Message 335 by New Cat's Eye
12-17-2012 5:10 PM


Looks like solid evidence of carrying concealed thwarting a crime to me, in contrast to the other recently offered "evidence" about why the mall shooter committed suicide.
But the argument isn't that guns never thwart crimes. It would be amazing if this never happened.
The argument is that the high prevalence of guns is the cause of the high death rate due to guns. The more guns per capita in a nation, the higher the gun murder rate. The obvious solution is to remove the guns.
By the way, the shots fired by Samuel Williams, the hero of the video, struck the robbers several times and could have very easily killed them, thereby increasing the murder rate. He could have killed innocent bystanders. I know it's not a very satisfying outcome, but if neither Williams nor Duwayne Henderson had guns then it would have become a successful robbery carried out with baseball bats but with little risk of death. The mere presence of guns puts everyone nearby at increased risk.
--Percy

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 Message 335 by New Cat's Eye, posted 12-17-2012 5:10 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 355 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:14 PM Percy has replied
 Message 368 by Faith, posted 12-17-2012 10:38 PM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(2)
Message 350 of 5179 (684516)
12-17-2012 5:51 PM
Reply to: Message 343 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 5:23 PM


crashfrog writes:
I don't expect I can convince anybody for whom it is an article of faith that a firearm is never an effective tool for self-defense.
Nobody's making that argument.
But it's nevertheless the case that the potential massacre in Chakamas was brought to a conclusion by the actions of a concealed-carry permit holder, without him even having to fire a shot.
Yes, and don't forget to mention how we can believe what he said because we know that no one ever tells self serving unverifiable stories to the press. Your evidence wasn't challenged because of what it was evidence of, but because it was so flimsy. Check with Catholic Scientist for an example of high quality evidence.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 343 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 5:23 PM crashfrog has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(2)
Message 363 of 5179 (684548)
12-17-2012 8:19 PM
Reply to: Message 355 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 7:14 PM


crashfrog writes:
But, as I've said before, Connecticut had a lower rate of firearms ownership than Canada and a lot of European countries. And yet, there's a guy shooting up a school. So clearly a low number of guns doesn't prevent these crimes.
An obviously and fatally flawed argument, no point repeating Rahvin's explanation.
Also, the argument is not that a "low number of guns" prevents homicides. The argument is that gun prevalence and gun homicides are positively correlated. More guns, more homicides.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 355 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:14 PM crashfrog has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 369 by Faith, posted 12-17-2012 10:50 PM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(1)
Message 365 of 5179 (684557)
12-17-2012 8:43 PM
Reply to: Message 359 by crashfrog
12-17-2012 7:53 PM


crashfrog writes:
You're STILL confusing "reduction" with "prevention."
Because that's what Percy is talking about. He's saying that the mass shootings will continue while guns are super-plentiful.
No, Percy is not saying that. Percy is making a probabilistic argument that gun prevalence and gun homicides are positively correlated. Which all the evidence supports. Mass murder is the rarest form of homicide, but as gun ownership declines they should also decline.
And I'm saying, recent events prove that mass shootings will continue regardless of how plentiful guns are, because this most recent one happened in a state where there were almost no guns at all.
You're saying this again? I hope you only mean that low gun prevalence won't mean an end to all mass murders, but if not then, well, I guess the odds are good that those who don't understand the errors of bucking probability are doomed to repeat them.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 359 by crashfrog, posted 12-17-2012 7:53 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 389 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 8:11 AM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(1)
Message 398 of 5179 (684637)
12-18-2012 9:26 AM
Reply to: Message 368 by Faith
12-17-2012 10:38 PM


Hi Faith,
The important point is that if no one had guns, no one's life would have been at risk.
--Percy

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 Message 368 by Faith, posted 12-17-2012 10:38 PM Faith has not replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 399 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 9:27 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 400 by jar, posted 12-18-2012 9:27 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 409 of 5179 (684648)
12-18-2012 10:45 AM
Reply to: Message 369 by Faith
12-17-2012 10:50 PM


Re: statistics
Hi Faith,
I'm not citing any actual statistics, I'm just describing the relationship. But I've looked at the statistics others have cited in this thread and they're pretty much in line with what I've seen before. It is clear that by nation the higher the prevalence of guns the higher the incidence of gun deaths.
This is pretty much just what one would expect. The more you have of anything, the more you'll experience its effects. The more car miles driven, the more accidents. The more eaten, the more fat. The more guns, the more gun deaths.
Certainly one must grant as fact at least one point on the graph: zero guns must correspond to zero gun deaths. Since negative deaths are not possible the graph can only rise from that point. Gun deaths will never begin declining with increasing gun prevalence because the majority of gun-related deaths are suicides.
But your position, as I understand it, is that as gun prevalence increases *homicides* begin decreasing. I haven't seen any evidence of this. By the way, if the hero from the Internet cafe had killed the robbers, it would have been homicide - justifiable homicide.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 369 by Faith, posted 12-17-2012 10:50 PM Faith has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 443 of 5179 (684698)
12-18-2012 1:07 PM
Reply to: Message 313 by New Cat's Eye
12-17-2012 3:42 PM


Hi CS, I see you added to the message later:
Catholic Scientist writes:
I'm still missing the irony... He asked why I wouldn't go for a full-auto for killing people. Then he asked why grenades shouldn't be at WalMart. I don't think full-autos should be at WalMart either. You're trying awefully hard to make me look stupid.
Sorry, wasn't trying to make you look stupid. If you don't see the irony then you don't see the irony, but it had nothing to do with grenades at WalMart. I explained what was ironic, you quoted it in your message, no grenades, no WalMart: "Your blas attitude combined with the thought of a device that could wreck your house while not being destructive was just too ironic to pass by without comment."
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 313 by New Cat's Eye, posted 12-17-2012 3:42 PM New Cat's Eye has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 445 of 5179 (684700)
12-18-2012 1:13 PM
Reply to: Message 389 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 8:11 AM


crashfrog writes:
But they haven't been. They've been increasing, even as the national gun ownership rate has been in decline.
Yes, I believe I've heard that, though I haven't been able to verify it myself. The best I could come up with just now was this graph:
It's from a 2011 Gallup article titled Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993
Anyway, if gun ownership is actually declining then do you have the data for that? Is it significant compared with gun ownership rates in countries we've been comparing to the US?
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 389 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 8:11 AM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 449 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:16 PM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(3)
Message 451 of 5179 (684706)
12-18-2012 1:19 PM
Reply to: Message 446 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:13 PM


Re: Hey you Brits: Your GUN Crime is UP, not down
crashfrog writes:
Do you think that a gun ban would produce an instant reduction?
Of course it should be immediate, if your position is that illegal things are harder to get.
I expect that his (extremely obvious) position is that illegal things are harder to get but not harder to keep if one already has them, and that it takes time for guns to pass out of the hands of those who already have them.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 446 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:13 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 454 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:22 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 473 of 5179 (684730)
12-18-2012 1:51 PM
Reply to: Message 449 by crashfrog
12-18-2012 1:16 PM


Your graph contained figures from both Gallop and GSS, so averaging and approximating, your graph says that there has been roughly a 20% decline in gun ownership over the past 40 years or so. I would expect this to correlate with a roughly 20% decline in total gun deaths over the same period. Anyone have any figures?
Gun massacres won't follow this trend because they'll tend to follow gun ownership rates for weapons typically used in mass murders, like assault rifles. Ownership rates for guns like these have been on the increase, haven't they? Anyway, here's an interesting article: Did the federal ban on assault weapons matter?.
It included this graph showing the decline in mass murders during the assault weapon ban, the peak in 1999 included Columbine:
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 449 by crashfrog, posted 12-18-2012 1:16 PM crashfrog has not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 571 of 5179 (684972)
12-19-2012 5:59 PM


About The Topic
I thought I'd clarify the topic just a little bit, since my opening post was a bit terse.
I wanted to discuss how or if we can reduce gun deaths in the US. I wasn't expecting that some would question that gun deaths are proportional to gun ownership, but that seems like it should be part of the discussion. Gun possession's impact on crime seems relevant, too, as do a host of related issues.
But single motherhood's and welfare's impact on crime is clearly not part of the topic.
Of course, I'm not a moderator in this thread and have no enforcement power.
--Percy

Replies to this message:
 Message 579 by kofh2u, posted 12-19-2012 9:10 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 584 by kofh2u, posted 12-19-2012 10:46 PM Percy has seen this message but not replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 677 of 5179 (685233)
12-21-2012 10:43 AM
Reply to: Message 675 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
12-21-2012 10:12 AM


Re: Would this be enough?
Tempe 12ft Chicken writes:
So, looking at this it is not our aggressive nature as much as it is related to mental health and depression. If we can achieve beneficial results in the fields of mental health treatment, then we can begin to lower these gun related deaths without even removing guns from the street.
I looked into firearm suicide a little a few days ago and was surprised to discover that there is good evidence that removing firearms doesn't much affect suicides - they simply find another means. Leaping is very popular.
Nationally for a recent year there were 17,000 suicides and 14,000 homicides due to firearms (I'm rounding to the precision of my memory, of course), so somewhere around 55% of firearm deaths were suicides.
But I don't think the US is particularly afflicted with suicides, they probably occur at roughly the same rate in all countries around the globe and are included in their statistics. Dropping suicide deaths from consideration would still show the same thing: the higher the prevalence of firearms the higher the prevalence of firearm related deaths.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 675 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-21-2012 10:12 AM Tempe 12ft Chicken has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 679 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-21-2012 10:57 AM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


Message 680 of 5179 (685242)
12-21-2012 11:13 AM
Reply to: Message 679 by Tempe 12ft Chicken
12-21-2012 10:57 AM


Re: Would this be enough?
Tempe 12ft Chicken writes:
Sure we have more homicides by gun, but would many of these homicides remain through another means if guns were fully banned?
The statistics seem pretty clear on this. If you look at Intentional Homicide Rates By Country at Wikipedia you'll see that the US rate is 4.2 while that of countries like England, France, Germany, etc., are about 1/4 as great.
Here's a couple paragraphs from the article Consequences: Gun Ownership Linked to Higher Homicide Rates about a five year old study:
In states in the highest quarter of gun ownership, the study found, the overall homicide rate was 60 percent higher than in states in the lowest quarter. The rate of homicides involving guns was more than twice as high.
Among the possible explanations for the higher homicide rates, the study said, is that states with high gun ownership tend to make it easier to buy guns. There are also more guns that can be stolen. And the presence of a gun may allow arguments and fights to turn fatal.
The researchers said they could not prove that the guns caused the increase in homicides, only that there was a link.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 679 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-21-2012 10:57 AM Tempe 12ft Chicken has replied

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 Message 685 by Tempe 12ft Chicken, posted 12-21-2012 11:44 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied
 Message 689 by crashfrog, posted 12-21-2012 12:15 PM Percy has replied

Percy
Member
Posts: 22506
From: New Hampshire
Joined: 12-23-2000
Member Rating: 5.4


(1)
Message 735 of 5179 (685376)
12-22-2012 8:19 AM
Reply to: Message 689 by crashfrog
12-21-2012 12:15 PM


Re: Would this be enough?
crashfrog writes:
Sure, I think it makes sense to everyone that the rate of gun homicides is higher in a country with more guns.
And the statistics support this view. So reducing the prevalence of guns will reduce the homicide rate.
In the absence of guns some potential murderers will simply shift to other means, but only some, and in the aggregate these other means are far less certain than guns.
Here's the abstract from a 2004 paper titled Guns in the Home and Risk of a Violent Death in the Home: Findings from a National Study:
Data from a US mortality follow-back survey were analyzed to determine whether having a firearm in the home increases the risk of a violent death in the home and whether risk varies by storage practice, type of gun, or number of guns in the home. Those persons with guns in the home were at greater risk than those without guns in the home of dying from a homicide in the home (adjusted odds ratio = 1.9, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 3.4). They were also at greater risk of dying from a firearm homicide, but risk varied by age and whether the person was living with others at the time of death. The risk of dying from a suicide in the home was greater for males in homes with guns than for males without guns in the home (adjusted odds ratio = 10.4, 95% confidence interval: 5.8, 18.9). Persons with guns in the home were also more likely to have died from suicide committed with a firearm than from one committed by using a different method (adjusted odds ratio = 31.1, 95% confidence interval: 19.5, 49.6). Results show that regardless of storage practice, type of gun, or number of firearms in the home, having a gun in the home was associated with an increased risk of firearm homicide and firearm suicide in the home.
In other words, having a gun in the house makes you less safe, not more safe. The fewer guns in American homes the fewer gun deaths there will be, and that's a good thing.
--Percy

This message is a reply to:
 Message 689 by crashfrog, posted 12-21-2012 12:15 PM crashfrog has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 740 by crashfrog, posted 12-22-2012 11:10 AM Percy has replied
 Message 2019 by New Cat's Eye, posted 03-12-2013 11:01 AM Percy has seen this message but not replied

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