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EvC Forum Side Orders Coffee House Gun Control Again

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Author Topic:   Gun Control Again
Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 3459 of 5179 (759716)
06-14-2015 5:03 PM
Reply to: Message 3423 by mikechell
06-13-2015 2:28 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
What you will never hear, because our news agencies (and yours) tend to shy away from good news, is the number of crimes that are prevented by gun owners.
Well, let's look at that if you like. It appears that annually there are about 68,000 instances of people trying to defend their persons or property with guns. (I say "trying" because the statistics don't say how often this is successful. We may suppose however that it works quite often.)
On the other hand, guns are used to commit crimes 467,000 times per year. (Note that this statistic is based on victims who actually saw a gun; it does not and indeed cannot include (for example) burglaries carried out by armed burglars, where the householder saw neither the burglar nor the gun.)
Some references:
http://www.vpc.org/studies/justifiable.pdf
Archived | Gun Violence in America | National Institute of Justice

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3423 by mikechell, posted 06-13-2015 2:28 PM mikechell has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3460 by Jon, posted 06-14-2015 5:29 PM Dr Adequate has replied
 Message 3461 by mikechell, posted 06-14-2015 6:18 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 3462 of 5179 (759725)
06-14-2015 6:21 PM
Reply to: Message 3460 by Jon
06-14-2015 5:29 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
For methodological reasons, researchers have thus far confined themselves to the study of real crimes rather than imaginary ones. However I am willing to go so far as to suggest that if everyone was armed with small pieces of string, the casualty rate would be rather lower.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3460 by Jon, posted 06-14-2015 5:29 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3465 by Jon, posted 06-14-2015 7:46 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3464 of 5179 (759731)
06-14-2015 6:37 PM
Reply to: Message 3461 by mikechell
06-14-2015 6:18 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
You didn't bother to include the statistic ...
Firearm crimes as a percent of all violent incidents
has hovered at less than 10%.
And you managed to cite that statistic without mentioning that, per the same source: "In the same year, data collected by the FBI show that firearms were used in 68 percent of murders, 41 percent of robbery offenses and 21 percent of aggravated assaults nationwide."
Less than 10% of offenses, but nearly 70% of homicides. Why is that? Could it be because it's quite hard to kill someone by punching them?
But we were talking about people defending themselves with guns. To return to that subject, for comparison let's include the statistic that only 0.8% of crime victims defended themselves with guns. (Actually, wait, that's the proportion that attempted to defend themselves with guns.) If your point was that 10% is small, then 0.8% is even less, and the use of guns for self-defense is still outweighed 10 to 1 by their use for committing crimes.
I am thinking that I'll be part of the 67,000 that stopped a threat to my home and family. Wife and I, both, carry.
Statistically you're much more likely to fall into the much larger group that has their guns stolen.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3461 by mikechell, posted 06-14-2015 6:18 PM mikechell has not replied

Replies to this message:
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Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3473 of 5179 (759763)
06-14-2015 10:43 PM
Reply to: Message 3465 by Jon
06-14-2015 7:46 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
My bad.
I thought you wanted an adult conversation.
In your own time.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3465 by Jon, posted 06-14-2015 7:46 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3474 by Jon, posted 06-14-2015 10:44 PM Dr Adequate has not replied
 Message 3479 by Omnivorous, posted 06-15-2015 6:32 AM Dr Adequate has not replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3475 of 5179 (759765)
06-14-2015 10:46 PM
Reply to: Message 3469 by Jon
06-14-2015 10:22 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
If we all based everything we did on statistical probabilities, we'd sit at home all day doing nothing.
As an argument for ignoring the facts, this could use a little more work.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3469 by Jon, posted 06-14-2015 10:22 PM Jon has not replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3478 of 5179 (759778)
06-15-2015 2:53 AM
Reply to: Message 3476 by mikechell
06-14-2015 11:03 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
orry ... this is off topic, but I had to laugh at this. Really? Let's try. Modified to make sense ... your statement with "car" instead of "gun".
"But it turns out that a car in the family is more likely to hurt and kill the people who belong in the car than it is to hurt and kill criminals."
But the parallel statement would actually be "But it turns out that a car in the family is more likely to hurt and kill the people who belong in the car than it is to transport them from place to place."
Yeah ... we can say that. Cars, or rather, the people who drive cars while drunk, eating, texting and talking on a phone, are more likely to kill you than a responsible gun owner.
And a gun owner is more likely to kill you than a responsible driver. This has nothing to do with the comparative dangers of guns and cars and everything to do with where we put the word "responsible".
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3476 by mikechell, posted 06-14-2015 11:03 PM mikechell has not replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3488 of 5179 (759802)
06-15-2015 11:10 AM
Reply to: Message 3484 by Jon
06-15-2015 8:40 AM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
I am simply pointing out that real people don't live their lives by the strict standards of statistical probabilities. [...] Folks bringing statistics into the debate need to be honest about the relevancy of the statistics and their overall weight in the decision-making process of regular human beings.
Most "real people" also ignore endogenous retroviruses when making their minds up about creationism and evolution, but that doesn't mean that they ought to be ignored and that it would be illegitimate to bring them into an argument on these forums.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3484 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 8:40 AM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3489 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 11:45 AM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3492 of 5179 (759811)
06-15-2015 11:58 AM
Reply to: Message 3489 by Jon
06-15-2015 11:45 AM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
Good thing I'm not advancing any such nonsensical ideas.
Then what is your point? You are presented with a set of facts. You reply that most people ignore the facts. Did you simply intend this as a non sequitur?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3489 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 11:45 AM Jon has seen this message but not replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3498 of 5179 (759839)
06-15-2015 2:08 PM
Reply to: Message 3496 by Jon
06-15-2015 12:49 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
People citing statistics need to realize that they are nice tidbits of information but that they don't usually have much impact on human behavior.
Just as facts about endogenous retroviruses don't usually have much impact on human beliefs.
Again, what's your point?

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3496 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 12:49 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3499 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 2:57 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3507 of 5179 (759875)
06-15-2015 6:18 PM
Reply to: Message 3499 by Jon
06-15-2015 2:57 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
I'm saying that if ignoring consequences is wrong, then we are all guilty of being wrong in pretty much everything we do.
No. In the real world, people's actions are motivated by their assessment of the likelihood of the consequences of their actions. Sometimes they get that assessment wrong. Providing them with facts is the only way, or at least the only honest way, to help them to do it right.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3499 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 2:57 PM Jon has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3512 by Jon, posted 06-15-2015 8:11 PM Dr Adequate has not replied
 Message 3513 by mikechell, posted 06-15-2015 9:48 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


(1)
Message 3515 of 5179 (759908)
06-16-2015 12:08 AM
Reply to: Message 3513 by mikechell
06-15-2015 9:48 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
I said that they didn't always weigh the consequences sensibly. But they are driven by consequences. Someone who has unprotected sex (for example) does, after all, want to get laid. They may be underestimating their risk of also getting an STD. If they had a much higher estimate of the likelihood of this, they would behave differently (as we can see by considering the extreme case where they believed that if they did so they would certainly contract HIV, herpes, and Exploding Penis Syndrome). By informing them of the statistics, we may change their behavior. Hence sex ed.
Now if we're thinking about gun control, and the claim is made that guns make us safer (without reference to other benefits such as making nice loud bangs and being useful for hunting ducks) then it should be possible to weigh the costs and benefits on the same scale. Maybe this is worth trying to do.
Edited by Dr Adequate, : No reason given.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3513 by mikechell, posted 06-15-2015 9:48 PM mikechell has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3516 by Jon, posted 06-16-2015 7:14 AM Dr Adequate has not replied
 Message 3518 by mikechell, posted 06-16-2015 8:12 AM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3521 of 5179 (759975)
06-16-2015 1:01 PM
Reply to: Message 3518 by mikechell
06-16-2015 8:12 AM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
No ... you said ...
Er ... that would be the same thing.
Everything I listed is CONSTANTLY discussed on TV, in classrooms and through magazine and e-zine articles.
Really? No-one has ever told me exactly how dangerous it is to jay-walk. I can't remember the last time someone told me the statistics associated with unprotected sex. Oh, and I only found out a few weeks ago that herpes is incurable. Who knew? Well, doctors apparently. I think it's a fact that should be more widely known.
In the real world ... people don't even THINK of consequences
Of course they do. They just focus on particular consequences while neglecting others. The guy who agrees to unprotected sex is thinking of consequences, namely "I'm gonna get laid". The jaywalker is thinking of consequences "I wanna get to the other side of the road."
People are idiots
Many people are indeed idiots, and don't do a proper cost-benefit analysis even of things that can severely affect their well-being. Which brings us back to the subject of gun ownership.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3518 by mikechell, posted 06-16-2015 8:12 AM mikechell has replied

Replies to this message:
 Message 3522 by mikechell, posted 06-16-2015 2:25 PM Dr Adequate has replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3523 of 5179 (760003)
06-16-2015 3:40 PM
Reply to: Message 3522 by mikechell
06-16-2015 2:25 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
There are numerous commercials that talk about unprotected sex on the TV all the time. So, I guess I am wrong there, too. It's only common knowledge to those who pay attention to their world, and not just to themselves.
The fact that Herpes is incurable was taught to me in middle school, so I don't expect someone who didn't get through grade school to know middle school knowledge, my apologies. But it is on those commercials listed above, oh, never mind. I actually pass a billboard on I-4 about it, too ... do you drive a car?
Yes, but not in Florida. I may also watch different TV shows from you. Y'know, with different commercials. I may even have gone to a different middle school from you. Now you think about it, do you see how that's possible?
If you're going to try to be offensive, you should also try to be better at it.
I know the dangers of owning a gun. I know that, in my hands, those dangers will be visited upon trespassers and criminals who endanger my home, wife and property.
Unless they shoot first. Or your wife shoots you first. Or you shoot yourself first. Or someone steals your gun first, which statistically is about four times more likely than you using it for self-defense. Perhaps you need more guns to protect your guns with.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3522 by mikechell, posted 06-16-2015 2:25 PM mikechell has not replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3527 of 5179 (760034)
06-16-2015 10:23 PM
Reply to: Message 3526 by Jon
06-16-2015 7:43 PM


Re: Daily Vehicle Deaths
I live in Nevada, where gun fatalities outnumber car fatalities. I don't know if that means we have twitchy trigger fingers or just that we're careful drivers. I do know that I can get to work without a gun.

This message is a reply to:
 Message 3526 by Jon, posted 06-16-2015 7:43 PM Jon has not replied

Dr Adequate
Member (Idle past 314 days)
Posts: 16113
Joined: 07-20-2006


Message 3528 of 5179 (760035)
06-16-2015 10:32 PM
Reply to: Message 3525 by Jon
06-16-2015 6:46 PM


Re: Another one bites the dust.
Just make the guns safer.
Someone tried that, remember? We discussed it on this thread. They got death threats from gun nuts. So did the gun shows they wanted to exhibit at, so they couldn't sell them. It seems that a gun that's safer to use isn't at all safe to sell.

This message is a reply to:
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